Geovisualization of forest simulation modelling results: A case study of carbon sequestration and biodiversity

Sustainable forest management requires new tools to analyze spatial and temporal forest dynamics and to examine those forest parameters that are related to sustainability. We built a prototype system for data analysis and decision-making at forest enterprise level by integrating a forest ecosystem model EFIMOD-PRO (long-term prediction of forest growth and soil development) with an interactive visualization system CommonGIS for analysis of spatially and temporally related data. Using the prototype, a case study in Central European Russia simulated four silvicultural regimes over 200 years: natural development, selective forestry, legal forestry according to the Russian forestry legislation, and illegal forest practice. Exploratory analysis of the simulation results demonstrated that (1) natural stand development is the best alternative for carbon sequestration; (2) legal forest management is the best regime for timber production; (3) selective forestry combines the advantages of two previous strategies, and can be the best strategy for implementing sustainable forest management; and (4) illegal forest practices lead to a fast decrease in forest productivity and decreasing biodiversity. Interactive and dynamic visualizations with maps and statistical graphics played a crucial role in data cleaning, model validation, and analysis of simulation results. The case study demonstrated the potential of integrating ∗ Corresponding author. Present address: University of Applied Sciences Bingen, Berlinstr. 109, 55411 Bingen, Germany. E-mail addresses: oleg [email protected] (O. Chertov), [email protected] (A. Komarov), [email protected] (G. Andrienko). 0168-1699/$ – see front matter © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.compag.2005.02.010 2 O. Chertov et al. / Computers and Electronics in Agriculture xxx (2005) xxx–xxx forest ecosystem models with exploratory data visualization for the analysis and expert evaluation at the local level. The prototype can be used to present ecological and silvicultural consequences of various management practices to stakeholders and differing social groups, thus stimulating effective decision-making for sustainable forestry. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.